Uk Talent Agencies

One of the most successful businessmen of his time Peter Sutherland believes it is time to put the case for joining the Euro back on the agenda for policy discussion. When the case was last investigated and, with the publication of the Treasury’s Report on the Five Tests, effectively terminated, the case for not joining was strong. It’s an astute observation that the case is far from as clear cut perhaps decisively so. A growing array of critical factors have changed. As it is ever popular to quote Keynes, it is worth bearing in mind the reproof he directed at someone who criticised the apparent inconstancy of his expressed views: “When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do?” First and most important when the case for the Euro was last went over, British citizens could be excused for following the classic Americans saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

This well-founded attitude was based on a long period of increasing prosperity and moderate inflation. It was reflected in a long run of predominantly negative answers to the question, as administered by polling organizations, “if there were a referendum on joining the Euro would you answer Yes or No to the question ‘Should Britain join the Euro?’ Few would agree this American adage is appropriate today. Attitudes towards joining the Euro seem in flux.

One of the ingredients in the long run of prosperity was undoubtedly the high value of the exchange rate of the pound against the Euro (as well as other currencies). Inevitably, things have changed. Where the exchange rate was arguably higher than it should have been before, now it is arguably too low. It was tricky to recommend locking into the Euro at the rates which were common in the late ’90s all the way through to 2007 and it would be prudent to await some appreciation before locking in now – but that some fall in the exchange rate can be welcomed is hardly beyond dispute. Still, while we are talking about the exchange rate, it is not just quibbles about whether the rate is correct or not at a particular time that should count. Rather, the lesson that might be learnt is that the recent behaviour of the exchange rate gives little ground for optimism about its role as a stabilizer when Britain’s exchange rate is floating. It’s true to say that there have been a number of studies which seem to show that the exchange rate may, for many countries, be just as much a source of shocks as a stabilizer of them.